Evaluating the accuracy of a time series model involves comparing the model's predictions to actual values using error metrics. Common metrics include Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). These metrics quantify the difference between predicted and observed values, with lower values indicating better accuracy. Visual inspection of residuals is another important step. By plotting the residuals (differences between predicted and actual values), you can check for patterns or biases. Ideally, residuals should resemble white noise, meaning they are randomly distributed with no discernible patterns. Cross-validation can further validate accuracy. A common method is time-based splitting, where the model is trained on one segment of the data and tested on subsequent segments. This ensures the evaluation mirrors real-world scenarios where future data is not available during training. Tools like Python’s sklearn or statsmodels provide built-in functions to calculate error metrics and visualize results.
How do you evaluate the accuracy of a time series model?
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